Saturday, July 13, 2024

Prince of Wales’s fair odds: BC winners help value on others

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Royal Ascot is known for offering some of the best horse racing in the world year after year, and it does not get any better or more international than a pair of Breeders’ Cup winners squaring off in front of King Charles III for a $1.27 million purse.

That is the backdrop for the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes on Wednesday, day 2 of Royal Ascot, when last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Auguste Rodin takes on Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner and champion turf female Inspiral.

No surprise that they are the two most backed horses, with Auguste Rodin the even-money favorite on the morning and trading on Monday night at around 3-2. Inspiral is the clear second choice at 3-1 morning line and 5-2 with European bookmakers.

I have their fair odds at 8-5 and 3-1, respectively, meaning if Auguste Rodin and Inspiral were an entry it’d be fair value at 3-5. Or, put another way, fair value on the rest of the fields sans the two big chalks is 8-5.

Unfortunately, that is not a bet we can make, but those figures help put into focus the opportunity because a few of these are total throw-outs to me (see the > 50-1 prices).

That leaves us with Horizon Dore as the potential value play. He is 6-1 morning line and 7-1 on my fair odds line. I think he could drift to a playable price with the Breeders’ Cup winners taking action. He was beaten less than a combined length in two Group 1 races already this spring in France, including a runner-up finish last out in the Prix d’Ispahan.

Speaking of the Prix d’Ispahan, Blue Rose Cen was fifth in there, but that was her 4-year-old debut after multiple Group 1 wins as a 3-year-old. 

Neither Auguste Rodin nor Inspiral won their seasonal debuts either, but I am a lot more forgiving at more than 10-1 than I am at even money. Still, either of the Breeders’ Cup winners’ best is likely good enough here, but it’s all about the price on whether that happens.

So, I’m looking to bet Horizon Dore to win at 7-1 or higher. If Horizon Dore isn’t that price, then maybe Blue Rose Cen will be worth a bet at a much bigger price. If both take action, though, then it’s possible one of the two Breeders’ Cup winners could end up being worth a bet, but I’m doubting that scenario.

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