Thursday, June 13, 2024

25/5/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont

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A nine event meeting has been set down for Belmont this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (13:59) Amelia Park Plate 1000m

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2 West Star (Bet Now: $2.60) clearly on top for me. Simon Miller trained juvenile that resumes after a debut in the Summer where he placed at Ascot, sitting on speed and just feeling the pinch late in the piece behind Sinful Living. Given a good break and despite doing a bit wrong, he moved with purpose in a recent Lark Hill trial win. If he overcomes the tricky gate, I think he’ll be winning.

Danger

1 London’s Image (Bet Now: $7.00) is a daughter of Headwater that resumes for Paul Jordan. Her last run was Feb 17 when down the track in the WA Magic Millions behind Big Shots. 1200m was a bridge too far and seems best suited at the short course so she’s suited here and has trialled up really well for her return. Lands on speed, hard to get past.

Long Shot

9 Caraway (Bet Now: $41.00) is a daughter of Gingerbread Man for Dan Morton that is on debut. This girl is having start one off the back of two trials, both over 1000m, with the latest being last Monday at Ascot where she seemed to move well enough to my eye when beaten just over two lengths. Likely spots them a start but should be strong at the end.

Race 2. (14:34) Tabtouch – Westspeed Platinum (Rs0ly) 1000m

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8 Lucky’s Way (Bet Now: $6.00) is the way I am leaning. Simon Miller trained mare that let down with purpose form off the speed to win over 1200m two weeks ago at Ascot, getting held up at times before getting clear and producing good change up speed to win. Back to 1000m I find interesting but with good speed in front, can see her sitting back and launching at them late.

Danger

1 City Angel (Bet Now: $2.10) is a ripping mare for Jayce Buckley and has to be respected against these. She’s had two runs for the new stable, winning fresh before a gutsy second to the very much in form The Boss Lady two weeks ago over 1100m at Ascot. Tricky map but hard to knock the way she’s returned.

Long Shot

2 Cosmopolitan Girl (Bet Now: $27.00) is a daughter of Safeguard for Team Pearce that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since June 28 at this track/distance when producing an end of prep run, finishing down the track behind Rupert’s Empire. She is not really a noted fresh horse but has trialled well leading and saves her best for here.

Race 3. (15:11) Quayclean (Bm72+) 1000m

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1 Beads (Bet Now: $15.00) tends to save his best for Belmont so returning here, I think he’s the play. Three weeks between runs since racing at Ascot when near the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite see it through behind Lexington City. This isn’t a strong sprint race and he loves Belmont. Happy to be in his corner.

Danger

7 Barney’s World (Bet Now: $9.00) is the big query. Luke Fernie trains this three year old, who resumed with a strong win at Ascot before backing up a week later where the market said he had three legs and ran accordingly behind Brave Strike, pulling up lame post race. If he runs up to the first up effort, he can take this out.

Long Shot

3 Rock This Town (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Kayla Farrell trained gelding that resumes. Son of Awesome Rock that hasn’t raced since March 16 at Ascot when leading and just feeling the pinch late in the piece behind Premium Choice. Resumes without a trial but is a bomb fresh horse and will press forward.

Race 4. (15:51) Peters Investments Plate 1200m

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6 Generosity (Bet Now: $2.40) is bursting to win and I think she gets a great chance here. She ran last Saturday over 1300m here…gee I thought Chris Parnham rode a very patient race on her. Too patient and left her run far too late when second to Best Mood. Back in trip, but hopefully with a more positive ride, she’ll take holding out.

Danger

7 Lost City (Bet Now: $6.00) is dangerous if she can stretch her brilliance to 1200m. Both runs back from a spell have come over 1000m at Ascot, just missing out fresh before a gutsy all the way win where she led and was there to be beaten but found under pressure to win.

Long Shot

3 King Cartel (Bet Now: $18.00) is a son of Universal Ruler that resumes for Mitch Pateman. This gelding is first up, having not raced since Dec 23 at Ascot when producing an end of prep run, finishing down the track behind Leading Taddy. Can sprint well fresh, has won at Belmont previously and the recent trial was more than encouraging.

Race 5. (16:39) Reliable Asset Maintenance 2Yo+ (Rs1mw) 1600m

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6 Premium Girl (Bet Now: $2.35) looks suited up in trip. She ran last Saturday over 1300m here, her first run in two months, and she was good late without threatening behind Best Mood. Much better set up here, gets Paul Harvey to steer and overall, I don’t think this is an overly deep race. Happy to be in her corner.

Danger

8 Cool Memory (Bet Now: $3.00) is a key chance. He ran over the mile at Ascot a fortnight back when outside a very slow speed and looked the winner for a stride or two when asked but couldn’t quite see it through and was outsprinted late by Miss Rockjoy. Good racing style and will be strong at the end.

Long Shot

5 Miss Rockjoy (Bet Now: $6.00) was off the boil for some time but she bounced back to winning form two weeks back, getting the suck run behind the slow tempo before getting the inside split and drove through late to get the win at big odds. Won’t get it on a plate this time around but her confidence is up.

Race 6. (17:15) Unite Resourcing (Rs1mw) 1400m

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11 Wonder Weapon (Bet Now: $9.00) is a model of consistency for Dan Morton and off the return, I think she’ll take beating against these. She resumed over 1200m at Ascot two weeks ago where she got back off the speed and spotted those in front a tidy start but she finished off her race with real purpose to run third to Lucky’s Way. Fitter and up in trip, can settle closer from the good draw, she’s the one for me.

Danger

6 Playz With Fire (Bet Now: $16.00) is a mare who has an engine under the hood but upstairs, she isn’t 100%. Market didn’t want her when racing last Saturday here and while she didn’t win, I thought she ran a very credible race, closing off with intent late behind Best Mood. Up in trip, hard fit and with her best, she’ll be around the mark.

Long Shot

3 Antique Miss (Bet Now: $2.15) is on the seven day back up for Mick Grantham after racing last Saturday at this track/distance. She got a fair way out of her ground but was very good late in the piece when third to Fast Flicker. Tricky draw but Pike takes over and with a more positive steer, she’s dangerous.

Race 7. (17:50) Celebrate Wa Raceday (Bm66+) 1200m

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2 Stormy Tawny (Bet Now: $8.00) is a daughter of Oratorio for Team Williams that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since Dec 30 when an outstanding winner over 1400m at Pinjarra. 1200m is on the short side for her but she has quality, she’s trialled up really well leading in and will be stronger than most at the end.

Danger

6 Twain’s Angel… (Bet Now: $1.60) beware the unbeaten filly. Team Casey trained filly that is three weeks between runs since winning at this trip at Ascot, finishing best in a driving go and was too good at the end of 1200m. Takes on the older horses here, but she could be a jet and you don’t know how good they are til they’re beaten.

Long Shot

5 Gift Of The Heart (Bet Now: $11.00) comes here with fresh legs for Roy Rogers, having not raced since April 20 when on speed and just feeling the pinch late over 1400m at Ascot behind the in form Above The Peg. Went like a jet in a recent tick over trial at Albany and with his racing pattern, he’ll give a stack of cheek I am sure.

Race 8. (18:25) Provincial Championship Series Final (Bm60+) 1400m

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5 Californication (Bet Now: $3.70) is a horse who I think is Saturday metro class, better than this level, and off the first up win, I think it’s a case of good luck beating him. He resumed at Kalgoorlie in a Qualifier where he was a market drifter but the horse just made a mess of them, giving them a start and a beating in such an impressive return. He’s better than these and for mine, is the best on the program, especially up to 1400m.

Danger

2 Blue Lagoon (Bet Now: $4.80) is a talented three year old for Susan Olive who earned his way into this race off the back of a win at Geraldton where he looked a good thing on paper and despite a few nervous moments, class came to the fore and under a confident steer, he was too good. Maps ideally and has a good racing style.

Long Shot

9 Kelvin (Bet Now: $46.00) is a Fred Kersley trained gelding that was a strong Qualifier winner at Northam before going to Pinjarra last Thursday when attempting to lead throughout and gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite see it through when third to Falcon Trader. Good racing style, hard fit, he’ll give a sight.

Race 9. (18:55) Wa Day Festival (Bm72+) 1600m

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11 Zephyra (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) has found winning form and she can certainly go on with it. The win came two weeks ago over 1400m at Ascot where she got into a decent spot just off the speed before angling into clear air and she let down with purpose to win and win well. Tricky gate, but the rise to the mile suits and off a win, she’ll do me.

Danger

5 Above The Peg (Bet Now: $7.00) has run well at the track/distance previously and is racing in near career best form. He ran third in the Zephyra race mentioned above. He was wide with cover throughout and got a decent drag into the race before angling wider into clear air and tried hard but couldn’t quite get the win behind Zephyra. Should be around the mark.

Long Shot

13 Stylax (Bet Now: $61.00) has a really good second up record and loves racing at Belmont so I am not dismissing him. He resumed two weeks back behind Zephyra. He had a suck run on the fence but couldn’t get involved and was a bit on the plain side late in the piece. Fitter and up in trip, he has good upside/improvement to suggest he can’t be dismissed.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 Californication

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 West Star

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 11 Zephyra

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 11

Leg Two: 2, 6

Leg Three: 5

Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 11, 13

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful


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