WTA Miami rolls on and we’re set for more incredible tennis on Saturday.
I’ve found value on two of Saturday’s matches, featuring Pegula vs Collins and Rybakina vs Badosa.
Read on for my WTA Miami picks for March 25.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Miami Odds, Picks
Jessica Pegula (-280) vs Danielle Collins (+215)
3 p.m. ET
Jessica Pegula started her Miami campaign strongly, defeating Katherine Sebov 6-3, 6-1. Pegula served 78% of her first serves into play and won 71% of her service points, only getting broken once. On return, the American won 52% of her return points and broke five times in eight return games.
Pegula is now 12-4 for the season, with all matches occurring on hard courts. For her career, Pegula has 236-136 record on hard. Pegula has an all-around game. She balances offense and defense nicely, gets consistent depth and has a high tennis IQ. The American is strong at the net and absorbs pace well.
But, Pegula lacks a bit of firepower on both her serve and from the ground.
Danielle Collins got a much-needed victory in her last match, taking out Viktoriya Tomova 7-6(3), 6-2. Collins won 67% of her first serves and 55% of her second serves, only getting broken twice. On return, Collins won 62% of her second-serve return points, breaking Tomova’s serve four times.
Collins has had a rough start to the season, by her standards. She’s gone 9-8 in 2023). Collins has a big first serve and tries to dictate play from the baseline with her backhand.
However, Collins’ forehand is still a threat. There are times, though, when Collins can lose her rally tolerance, although it was nice to see her hit through Tomova’s solid baseline play in her prior match.
I think that Collins is being underrated here. Her match against Tomova was encouraging, with Collins hitting with controlled aggression on the ground.
While Pegula can absorb pace well, Collins has the sheer firepower to rip through her defenses, at least for periods of this match. Collins should be the one dictating play from the baseline, with Pegula unable to match her power.
All five of Pegula’s losses this season have come to players who can ramp up the pace on their groundstrokes and take the racquet out of Pegula’s hands. Collins fits this mold.
Pick: Over 20.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
Elena Rybakina (-290) vs Paula Badosa (+220)
8:30 p.m. ET
After winning Indian Wells, Elena Rybakina won a hard-fought opening match in Miami, 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 over Anna Kalinskaya. Rybakina hit 14 aces and won 76% of her service points, yet only won 46% of her second-serve points, getting broken on four occasions. The Kazakh also hit seven double faults.
On return, Rybakina won 61% of her second-serve return points, generating 13 break points and breaking five times.
Rybakina is now an incredible 17-4 on hard courts this season and has a 172-81 career-record on the surface. The Kazakh is known for her big first serve. In fact, Rybakina is top-six this year in aces, percentage of first-serve points won, service points won and service games won. But, behind that serve is an aggressive baseline game, particularly from Rybakina’s forehand wing.
However, Rybakina has played a lot of tennis lately and she’s not a great mover. In addition, her rally tolerance can sometimes be shaky.
Paula Badosa defeated Laura Siegemund 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-2 to kick off her Miami campaign. Badosa won 63% of her service points, but hit nine double faults and was broken four times. On return, Badosa did win 43% of her return poitns and generated 10 break points, breaking on five occasions.
Badosa’s win over Siegemund has improved her hard-court record in 2023 to 5-3. As a professional, Badosa is strong on hard, with a 150-87 record on the surface. When she’s playing well, Badosa hits her spots on serve and strikes the ball with pace into precise locations on the court. She is consistent and gets good depth on her groundstrokes.
These two played in Indian Wells, with Rybakina winning 6-3, 7-5. However, for a fairly significant portions of the match, particularly in the second set, Badosa was the better player.
Badosa can absorb Rybakina’s pace and should improve upon her 41% second-serve returns won in that match. Rybakina’s match against Kalinskaya also showed that she is also clearly a bit fatigued after her Indian Wells run.
Pick: Badosa to win a set (-120 via PointsBet)
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