Winter storm NYC: How much snow will NY, NJ, CT see? Timing out your Tuesday morning commute

Winter storm warnings and watches are in place across the NYC region, as a major storm is set to slam the Tri-State area with up to 10 inches of snow possible.

In response, New York City public schools will move to remote learning Tuesday, Mayor Eric Adams tweeted.

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While the exact track of the storm remains unknown, one thing is for certain: Tuesday morning’s commute will be very messy and difficult.

“We haven’t seen a storm like this in probably two, three years,” FOX 5 NY’s Mike Woods said.

Here’s everything you need to know about Tuesday’s winter storm:

Winter storm warnings and watches for Tri-State area.

  • Winter storm warning: 1 a.m. Tuesday through 6 p.m. Tuesday for interior NE New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, and southern Connecticut.
  • Winter storm watch: 4 a.m. Tuesday though 6 p.m. Tuesday for New York City, Long Island and parts of NE New Jersey.

Monday evening

Temperatures will be warm enough Monday that the storm will likely begin as rain across the area. 

But as the system continues to advance to the northeast and eventually move off the East Coast, it will begin to pull in the colder air from the north and Canada, which will change the precipitation over to snow.

The exclusive FOX Weather future radar and clouds showing the potential nor’easter this week. (FOX Weather)

“The storm itself, and the placement and the movement and the track is still a bit of a question as far as how it moves,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Craig Herrera said.

Tuesday morning

By the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, widespread snow is expected across portions of New York, making the morning commute for people heading to work quite tricky and dangerous.

What to know for Tuesday’s storm.

Other schools across the region will likely be closed as the potential nor’easter begins to ramp up.

Tuesday afternoon

Snow will continue throughout the day Tuesday and will likely begin to pull away from the region during the evening commute.

NYC and areas on Long Island could see 6 to 10+ inches, with locally higher amounts possible. 

Snowfall forecast from FOX 5 NY’s Mike Woods.

Snowfall rates of 1 to 2+ inches per hour are possible.

“One way or another, if it’s not snow, it’s going to be rain, which will be heavy at times,” Woods said. “Windy at the same time.”

How much snow will the rest of the Tri-State area see?

Interior NE New Jersey, interior Lower Hudson Valley and interior southern Connecticut could also see 6-10+ inches, with locally higher amounts, especially north I-84 late Monday night into Tuesday.

The threat of 4 inches of snow. (FOX Weather)

Portions of NE New Jersey, southern Westchester, coastal Connecticut could see similar amounts.

Parts of south and central NJ could see 3 to 5 inches.

  • A more northern track with the low pressure would reduce snowfall totals in the warning area, according to the National Weather Service.

Snow amounts could be this low if the storm track ends up further north/warmer. (NWS)

  • A more southern track with the low pressure would lower snowfall totals inland, but would likely increase snowfall totals down to the coast across NYC metro and Long Island, the NWS said.

Snow amounts could be close to these levels if storm track is further south/colder or with heavier snow banding over inland areas. (NWS)

  • Location of heavy snow banding will be refined as the event unfolds.

New York City public schools will move to remote learning on Tuesday due to the incoming snow storm, Mayor Eric Adams tweeted.

Mid-winter weather outlook: ‘6 more weeks’ of winter

New York City’s Central Park has recorded a measly 2.3 inches of snow this winter, but FOX 5 NY’s Nick Gregory said the area has the potential for at least another 15 inches, according to his mid-winter forecast.

Only one or two decent storms will help us reach this projected total, and Nick forecasts that February will provide the perfect conditions for winter storm development.

The U.S. is experiencing a strong El Niño, meaning the Tri-State is more likely to see warmer-than-average temperatures and wetter-than-average precipitation.

As we move forward, strong El Niño conditions will continue, meaning February will feature the same type of weather we’ve seen: above-average temperatures and borderline rain-snow events.

“I think winter will be prolonged here, and I do think that we’ll probably have a good surge of cold weather coming in the middle part of February, [creating the potential for a snow storm or two,” Nick said.

Steven Yablonski, with FOX Weather, helped contribute to this report.

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