This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Monday Night Football, Week 11
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Monday Night Football brings a Super Bowl rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) and the Kansas City Chiefs (7-2). Let’s dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Betting Odds for Monday Night Football
Eagles: Spread +3.0 (-120), +124 Moneyline
Chiefs: Spread -3.0 (+100), -148 Moneyline
Game Total: 45.5 points
This line opened at Chiefs -3.0 and moved to -2.5 and has bounced back and forth between those two numbers with extra juice on the Eagles. Both teams are coming off a bye and Andy Reid is notorious for his record coming off a bye (28-4). Prior to the bye, the Eagles are coming off a Sunday home win against the Cowboys, 28-23, while the Chiefs had an impressive win overseas against the Dolphins, winning, 21-14.
The total opened in the 47.5-to-48.0 range and has dropped to 45.5 based on weather, the lack of offensive fireworks, and the strength of both defenses. The trend of UNDER in the prime-time games this year 24-7, 14-1 last 15, and 10 straight.
Totaling bets thus far, 79 percent of the money and 76 percent of the bets are on the Eagles. There is 66 percent of the money on the Eagles’ moneyline, which is 34 percent of the bets. There is 76 percent of the money and 75 percent of the bets on the OVER.
Key injury situations to watch
Chiefs: LB Nick Bolton (OUT)
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Eagles vs. Chiefs Betting Picks This Week
Eagles vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Chiefs -2.5 (FanDuel -115) for 1 unit
It is not very often you can get the Chiefs at home under a field goal and they have no significant injuries outside of Nick Bolton. Plus, Reid’s record coming off the bye is legendary. This game means more to KC (home) than Philly (non-conference road game) and I see them winning in a low-scoring close one. The Chiefs are 11-1 straight up at home in their last 12. They are 7-3 straight up and against the spread as home favorites between 0-3 points in their last 10.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes OVER 24.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -120) for 0.5 unit
Mahomes has had at least 24 rushing yards in 7 out of 9 games and with just Travis Kelce as a proven weapon on offense, he has averaged 4.7 rushing attempts per game. With weather playing an issue and this being a lower scoring defensive game, Mahomes will continue to rely on his legs in key 3rd down situations.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Eagles/Chiefs 1H UNDER 23.5 (BetMGM -120) for 1 unit
A lot of the value on the UNDER has been taken already with the total going from 48 to 45.5, but there is value on the first half UNDER especially if it lands on 13-10. The UNDER has hit in Kansas City’s last five games and it is 7-3 in the last 10 home games in which they were favorites between 0-3 points. Because the game total has been dropped, I like the first half because of the 23.5 number; if this was 22.5 or even 23 I would pass.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Prediction
Eagles – #9 overall DVOA, #6 DVOA offense, #3 DVOA defense
Chiefs – #7 overall DVOA, #2 DVOA offense, #19 DVOA defense
The Chiefs get a key home prime-time win – Chiefs 20, Eagles 16.