For the season, my NBA Best Bets have gone 40-22-1 ATS. Let’s check out my favorites for today!
Saturday’s Best NBA Bets
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Excuse my pessimism, but there’s not much to love about the Clippers right now. The absence of Paul George is obviously severe, but I think the public is underselling the extent to which his presence matters for this team. George is Los Angeles’ most critical player per Wins Above Replacement, and the Clippers starting five without him is uninspiring (to phrase it nicely).
Let’s circle in on Russell Westbrook, and Eric Gordon– neither player has any business starting for a contending team in the respective stages of their careers. They’re both highly obstructive defensive players, and perpetually rate negatively on the box-score plus/minus. Any minutes afforded to them is a hinderance to the Clippers chance at winning, and it’s dumbfounding that Head Coach Ty Lue has elected to afford them such significant playing time.
In argument, the Pelicans aren’t a great team right now either, but they certainly have the Clippers beat in terms of overall depth. Los Angeles will certainly have the best player on the court (Kawhi Leonard, beast), but the Pels may very well have players two through five available in their rotation, as arguments for McCollum, Ingram, Jones, Murphy III, and Jones Jr. are all valid. Lastly, the importance of this game for New Orleans’ playoff chances cannot be understated, and despite their lackluster play since January, the Pelicans have been quite formidable this month of March.
Bet: Pelicans +5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Truthfully, there’s not a lot that stands out to me for today’s slate. But, if I’m to stake my reputation on anything, betting the Denver Nuggets at home is the way I want to go.
Denver is an illustrious 22-13-1 ATS on their home court, have the best player in basketball on their side (in my book, and per 538), and own a significant rest advantage over the Milwaukee Bucks in this particular matchup. The hesitation is the two team’s play heading into this matchup:
The Nuggets are 3-5 SU these past two weeks, playing at a level well below their season-long marks, and against generally below average NBA teams (their loss in San Antonio particularly stands out). In contrast, Milwaukee has lost only thrice over these past two months, grading out as far and away the NBA’s best team per Pts/Poss. However, playing in Denver is not so easy. Considering that the Bucks are on the tail-end of a back-to-back (albeit, a relatively easy one), and that the Nuggets have been resting at home for three days following a tumultuous road trip, the situational advantage for the Nuggets is tough to overlook.
Bet: Nuggets -2.5 (-110)
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