Kansas State vs. FAU prediction, odds, time: 2023 NCAA Tournament picks, Elite Eight bets from proven model

The Florida Atlantic Owls aim to continue a Cinderella ride in the 2023 NCAA Tournament on Saturday. FAU, the No. 9 seed, takes on the No. 3 seed Kansas State Wildcats in the East Regional final at Madison Square Garden. The Owls have won 10 straight games, improving to 34-3, and Florida Atlantic is one win from the Final Four in Houston. Kansas State stands in its way with a 26-9 record in the first season under head coach Jerome Tang.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Wildcats as 1.5-point favorites for this 6:09 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 144 in the latest Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State odds. Before locking in any Kansas State vs. Florida Atlantic picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament 83-54 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,500 for $100 players. It also went 4-1 on top-rated picks during the first week of March Madness. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Kansas State vs. FAU and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for FAU vs. Kansas State:

  • Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State spread: Kansas State -1.5
  • Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State over/under: 144 points
  • Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State money line: Kansas State -135, FAU +115
  • FAU: The Owls are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • KSU: The Wildcats are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Florida Atlantic can cover

The Owls are rolling at this point, winning 10 straight games and maintaining an unbeaten season-long record in games played on home or neutral courts. Florida Atlantic has a large edge on the offensive glass in this matchup, as the Owls secure 31.1% of their own missed shots. Kansas State struggles to a paltry 70.1% defensive rebound rate, and the Wildcats also struggle in free throw prevention, yielding nearly 21 attempts per game. FAU maintains strong bonafides as a passing team, producing 14.6 assists per game and committing a turnover on only 16.5% of offensive possessions. 

That includes a very strong 8.1% live-ball turnover rate, and Florida Atlantic rounds out its offensive approach with highly efficient shooting. The Owls are making 53.9% of 2-point attempts and 36.9% of 3-point attempts this season, with Florida Atlantic scoring 112.6 points per 100 possessions on the whole. Sophomore guard Johnell Davis leads the way for the Owls, scoring 13.9 points per game this season and making NCAA Tournament history with 29 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and five steals in a win over Fairleigh Dickinson.

Why Kansas State can cover 

Kansas State’s offense is flying high right now after an impressive performance against Michigan State in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats shot 56% from the field and 46% from 3-point range in that victory, and K-State generated 26 assists with only five turnovers in the game. For the season, Kansas State is in the top eight of the country in assists per game (17.1), and the Wildcats utilize the free throw line effectively with 20.9 attempts per game and 75% shooting at the charity stripe. 

Kansas State maintains efficiency in making 53.2% of 2-point attempts, and Florida Atlantic struggles in rim protection, including an ugly 6.7% block rate for the season. The Wildcats also have a path to success on the offensive glass, grabbing more than 30% of missed shots and creating second-chance opportunities. From there, Kansas State can ride the effectiveness of All-Big 12 guard Markquis Nowell, who is coming off an all-time performance with 20 points and an NCAA Tournament record 19 assists in the win over Michigan State.

How to make FAU vs. Kansas State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 145 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 70% of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Kansas State vs. FAU? And which side of the spread hits well over 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.

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