Creighton vs. San Diego State prediction, odds: 2023 NCAA Tournament picks, Elite Eight bets by proven model

A pair of surprise teams square off for the right to play in the Final Four when the fifth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs face the sixth-seeded Creighton Bluejays in the 2023 NCAA Tournament South Region Final on Sunday. The Bluejays (24-12, 14-6 Big East), who placed third in the Big East, advanced with an 86-75 win over 15th-seeded Princeton on Friday. The Aztecs (30-6, 15-3 Mountain West), who won both the Mountain West regular-season and tournament titles, knocked out top-seeded Alabama 71-64 in the Sweet 16. This is Creighton’s first appearance in the Elite Eight since 1941, while San Diego State is making its first-ever trip.

Tipoff from the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky., is set for 2:20 p.m. ET on CBS. Creighton leads the all-time series 5-3. The Bluejays are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Creighton vs. San Diego State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 133. Before locking in any San Diego State vs. Creighton picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament 83-54 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,500 for $100 players. It also went 4-1 on top-rated picks during the first week of March Madness. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Creighton vs. SDSU and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for SDSU vs. Creighton:

  • Creighton vs. San Diego State spread: Creighton -1.5
  • Creighton vs. San Diego State over/under: 133 points
  • Creighton vs. San Diego State money line: Creighton -125, San Diego State +105
  • CREI: The Bluejays are 5-0 against the spread in their last five NCAA Tournament games
  • SDSU: The Aztecs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win
  • Creighton vs. San Diego State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Creighton can cover

Junior center Ryan Kalkbrenner continues to be an offensive force for the Bluejays. In the Sweet 16 win over Princeton, he scored 22 points, grabbed five rebounds, dished out two assists and had one block. He scored 10 points and grabbed seven rebounds in the 85-76 upset of third-seeded Baylor in the second round. He put forth a dominant effort in the 72-63 first-round win over North Carolina State, scoring 31 points, grabbing seven rebounds, blocking three shots and dishing out two assists. In 33 starts this season, he averages 15.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.2 blocks and 1.2 assists.

Sophomore guard Trey Alexander is also a big reason the Bluejays have reached the Elite Eight. In the win over Princeton, he scored 19 points, grabbed four rebounds and dished out two assists. He had 17 points, eight rebounds and five assists in the win over Baylor. In 36 starts, he averages 13.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.1 steals. He has been red hot from the field, connecting on 44.7% of his field goals, including a blistering 42.3% from 3-point range, and 81.7% from the free-throw line.

Why San Diego State can cover 

The Aztecs are led by senior guard Matt Bradley. He has reached double-digit scoring in three of the last four games, including a 17-point, seven-rebound and four-assist effort in a 63-57 first-round win over Charleston. He scored 10 points, grabbed three rebounds and dished off two assists in a 75-52 second-round win over Furman. In 36 games, all starts, he is averaging 13 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 26.7 minutes of action. He is connecting on 41.1% of his shots from the floor, including 36.6% from 3-point range, and 79.8% from the free-throw line.

Senior guard Darrion Trammell was on fire against Alabama in Friday’s Sweet 16 win. He poured in 21 points, grabbed five rebounds and made two steals in 30 minutes of action. It was the fourth time this season he surpassed 20 points. In the second-round win over Furman, he scored 13 points, grabbed two boards and had two assists. In 35 games, including 34 starts, he is averaging 9.5 points, 3.2 assists, 2.2 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 26.9 minutes.

How to make San Diego State vs. Creighton picks

The model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 137 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Creighton vs. San Diego State? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.

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