Over the last two decades and change, the XFL has been an occasional source of extra football action after the conclusion of the NFL season. In 2020, and its return in 2023, XFL betting became an option thanks to the proliferation of online sports betting in the United States. Here, we take a look at the best XFL bets this week, to help you maximize your earning potential when betting on XFL games.
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XFL Best Bets For Week 6
XFL Best Bet #1: Orlando Guardians +8.5 over Seattle Sea Dragons
XFL Best Bet #2: St. Louis BattleHawks -3 over Vegas Vipers
The St. Louis BattleHawks lost at home last week against the D.C. Defenders, but we will back them again this week against the Vegas Vipers. Vegas has the worst home field advantage in the XFL, playing at a minor league baseball stadium, and we are not worried about the BattleHawks on the road against this offensively challenged Vegas team.
XFL Best Bet #3: San Antonio Brahmas +3 over Arlington Renegades
San Antonio and Arlington faced off just this past week, with the Renegades winning in San Antonio by two points in a defensive struggle. Here, the Renegades are at home, but Arlington is the home base of every XFL team during the week this season. That, combined with the offensive ineptitude of the Renegades, makes the Brahmas worth a play as a field goal underdog after being a three-point favorite over Arlington last week.
XFL Best Bet #4: D.C. Defenders -2.5 over Houston Roughnecks
Finally, in the game of the week in XFL Week 6, we will take the D.C. Defenders as a favorite over the Houston Roughnecks. Houston lost their first game of the season last week in Seattle, and they will lose for the second straight week on the road here. Houston’s 4-0 start came against the Guardians twice, the offensively inept Renegades, and the Brahmas. They will struggle again as they face a much tougher opponent here.
What Are the Best XFL Bets This Week?
Above, you will find our best XFL bets for this week. These are the selections that XFL betting expert Jay Sanin has made for this week. He went 14-5-1 on spreads and totals in the 2020 version of the XFL, and is off to a 10-5-1 start through the first five weeks of the 2023 relaunch of the league. That is a record of 24-10-2 all-time, mainly on spreads and totals, for a win percentage of 70.5%.
What Types of XFL Picks Do You Make?
The XFL is a little different than the major sports leagues that we provide best bets for. This league is set to be more of a developmental league to try and get players to the NFL, and test out new rules that could improve the game of football as a whole. Therefore, there aren’t many props or exotic bets available like you would see in the NFL. Instead, we focus on these main betting markets.
XFL Spread Predictions
Point spreads are the bread and butter of our XFL betting picks. We make our selections early in the week before the next week of XFL action, so that bettors can lock in their predictions early and give themselves a chance to get the best numbers possible. These are the majority of the XFL best bets that you will see here each week.
XFL Moneyline Picks
We do also provide XFL moneyline predictions occasionally, when our projections indicate that they are a smarter play than the point spread. This is often the case with underdogs, as there is often value on moneyline underdogs in a league that is so new, where there is not a large sample size of games from each franchise to draw information from.
XFL Over/Under Picks
Bettors will also find XFL over/under picks here at times, when our score projections highlight value on either one side of the total or the other. Totals can be a little tricky in the XFL, given that there are no extra point kicks, and teams need to convert a play from scrimmage to get 1-3 points after each touchdown. But we will still highlight a total or two when we find value in those markets.
How Do You Make XFL Predictions?
The XFL may be the most profitable sport that we handicap here at ATS, which understandably begs the question of how we do it so well. In addition to the modeling that has made us successful in a wide range of sports, we also make sure to take a close look at the following strategic elements that can be the difference between winning and losing XFL betting.
Understanding XFL Matchups
In any sport, it is important to evaluate the matchups taking place at every spot on the court or field. But there is a huge upside to doing this in a league like the XFL, where most of the players are not household names. Finding spots where teams have clear advantages and disadvantages can open up value betting opportunities that have not yet been picked up on elsewhere.
Extra Point Tendencies
As we mentioned earlier, extra points in the XFL are way different than what you will see during NFL season. Instead of the option to kick an extra point or go for two points from the two yard line, XFL teams have the following options.
- 2 yard conversion = 1 point
- 5 yard conversion = 2 points
- 10 yard conversion = 3 points
These three options introduce differences in strategies from one team to the next. For example, most teams go for two points after a touchdown. But the 2023 Seattle Sea Dragons make it a point to go for three points after virtually every score. Knowing which teams employ which strategies the most, and which teams succeed and fail with those strategies, can make a huge difference in each game.
Home Field Advantage
Home field advantage is always thought to be important in football, even if the exact impact of it can be a bit overvalued. In the XFL, though, there are huge differences in the quality of home field advantage from one team to the next. Some teams draw huge numbers of fans in proper football venues, while others play in smaller venues in front of smaller crowds. Field conditions can also vary from one team to the next, which is something to keep an eye out for.
XFL Playoff Picks
In addition to making XFL betting picks during the regular season, we will also have XFL best bets for the playoffs as well. In the current XFL playoff format, the top-two teams from the North and South Divisions will qualify for the playoffs, which will be a four-team single elimination tournament. XFL bettors can count on us having picks for those games, in addition to the regular season.
More Than Just XFL Predictions
Here at ATS, we offer much more than the XFL best bets you see here. We also offer picks in popular leagues like the NFL, NBA, NHL, and more. Click the links below to see those picks throughout the respective seasons in those leagues.