76ers vs. Warriors Odds
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Golden State Warriors host the Philadelphia 76ers tonight as they continue their road trip and their pursuit of the No. 1 seed in the East. The Warriors are currently sixth in the West and are seeking to stay out of the Play-In Tournament with eight games to go in the regular season.
Can the Warriors continue to dominate at home or will the Sixers take tonight’s contest? Let’s dive into how these two teams stack up and discuss the value betting prediction for 76ers vs Warriors.
The 76ers’ injury report is significant and difficult to navigate. The Sixers have listed James Harden (Achilles), Joel Embiid (calf), and Jalen McDaniels (hip) as questionable for tonight’s game, which is the first game in a back-to-back set before tomorrow night’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns.
Embiid and Harden combined are worth roughly 7-8 points to the spread; if they both play tonight this line should move significantly and I’d have the 76ers favored. Although Joel Embiid expressed in the postgame that he expected to play tonight after exiting at half in the 76ers’ easy victory against the Bulls, the back-to-back needs to be considered.
Even if Embiid and Harden do not play tonight, we cannot completely discount the 76ers. They have capable players in Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, PJ Tucker, and (BBall) Paul Reed. Additionally, in this specific matchup, the potential loss of Embiid against the Warriors who generally play small is not as damaging as it could be against other teams that run their offense through the paint.
One thing we know the 76ers can still do is find efficient offense through both Maxey and Harris. Both have positive point differentials in their minutes this season and even without Embiid and Harden on the floor, when both Maxey and Harris played the team scored 117.9 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
The Warriors continue to be without Andrew Wiggins (personal), Andre Iguodala (wrist), and Gary Payton II (adductor); however, they’ve found success with their current starting lineup of Stephen Curry, Donte DiVincenzo, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney.
The Warriors have the most dramatic home/road splits in the NBA and luckily for them, they are home tonight. In their home games, the Warriors are 29-7 straight up (24-12 ATS) and have truly been dominant. We almost need to treat the home Warriors as a different entity — they have the fifth-best point differential at home (+9.0) and have dominated on both sides of the floor. It’s stunning to consider this team is the same team that has a point differential of +0.9 on the entire season and is just two games above .500.
Of late, the Warriors have dominated against the spread at home with a 9-1 ATS record over their last 10 home games. However, they have done the majority of their damage in the second half of games. And over their last 10 home games, they are just 5-5 ATS in the first half including 1-4 over their last five. Warriors head coach Steve Kerr is still working out some kinks in their rotations and then is able to make adjustments for the second half.
This spread is out of control — it’s ballooned from an opener of 2.5 to 5.5. If Embiid and Harden are both ruled out, it would not shock me to see an 8-point spread. However, I question whether or not this is warranted despite the Warriors’ success at home.
One place I think there is value right now is on the 76ers in the first half. The offense should still find success against a Warriors’ defense that is allowing opponents to score 120.1 points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks.
Additionally, the Warriors play at the fastest Pace in the league and while the 76ers are normally a slower team with Harden and Embiid playing a slower half-court game, if they are unable to go then Maxey is likely to push the pace for Philadelphia.
I think there’s particular value on the 76ers’ first half total as well because it will be prior to any halftime adjustments Coach Kerr can make, and if Embiid and/or Harden is ultimately ruled in then their offensive efficiency should only improve and this number should remain either static or increase.
I’ll back Philadelphia to keep up with the Pace in the first half.
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