49ers vs Buccaneers Odds | NFL Week 11
Sunday, Nov. 19
4:05 p.m. ET
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
49ers vs Buccaneers odds have San Francisco as a 13.5-point home favorite on the spread with a game total over/under of 41.5 for NFL Week 11, although I’m focused on a different total for my 49ers vs Buccaneers pick.
The 49ers are back to full health as was evident in their 34-3 drubbing of the Jaguars. This week, the 49ers are back on home turf and I believe the best angle to bet in this game is to rely on another stellar offensive performance from Kyle Shanahan’s squad, led by Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and company.
Now, let’s make a 49ers vs Buccaneers prediction.
49ers vs Buccaneers Prediction
Pick: 49ers Team Total Over 26.5 | Play to 27.5
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the 49ers and Buccaneers match up statistically:
49ers vs. Buccaneers DVOA Breakdown
Both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel returned to the lineup last week for the 49ers. It was no surprise that the offense was much more efficient upon their return as San Francisco racked up 437 total yards and averaged a robust 7.3 yards per play.
Williams is rated as the sixth-best tackle this season, according to Pro Football Focus. And that comes after three consecutive seasons in which he was the highest graded at the position. After one healthy performance, the 49ers seemingly put the rest of the league on notice that they are back to being Super Bowl contenders.
We have a large enough sample size to believe Brock Purdy is truly San Francisco’s quarterback of the future. Purdy is the top passer in the league in both completion percentage and yards per attempt when kept clean. His sparkling 123.8 passer rating when not under pressure is undoubtedly partly a product of the system, but we must acknowledge just how many points this team has scored since he has taken over.
In the six regular season games Purdy started in 2022, the 49ers scored 30 or more five times. To begin 2023, Purdy led this offense to another five consecutive games in which they scored 30 or more points. As the offense suffered injuries to key cogs, Purdy’s performance suffered, but now he gets to take on a vulnerable Buccaneers defense with a full set of weaponry at his disposal.
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Since their Week 5 bye, the Buccaneers defense is 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed. A major factor in their dip in performance is their inability to get pressure on the quarterback.
On the season, this unit is 25th in pass rush win rate, according to ESPN data. Their adjusted sack rate of 7.5% also reflects their lack of havoc plays created as they rank 19th in the category. Whenever the Buccaneers haven’t been able to get home with pressure, the secondary has been shredded.
According to Sharp Football, Tampa Bay is allowing a 77.5% completion rate and 9.2 yards per attempt with eight touchdowns surrendered and zero interceptions. Against the most efficient passer in football when throwing from a clean pocket, this is a terrible matchup for Tampa Bay’s defense.
The Buccaneers have been more stout defending the run. With that said, opposing rushing attacks have a 50.5% success rate against them on the ground, which actually puts them as the ninth-worst unit on a down-to-down basis. The 49ers are the second-best offense when it comes to success rate, and they average an incredible 7.1 yards per play on first down.
Buccaneers middle linebacker Devin White has been playing at less than 100% health this season as he deals with a foot injury. He has graded out as the 80th-ranked run defender at his position out of 81 qualifying linebackers. He is questionable for this game, but seems to be trending toward playing — just another factor that gives me confidence in the 49ers’ offense.
Buccaneers vs. 49ers
Betting Picks & Predictions
The 49ers offense has consistently produced against inferior opponents and I don’t expect much to change here. All signs point to another 30-point explosion from the No. 1 offense in DVOA.
Simply put, oddsmakers made a mistake in listing the 49ers’ team total below 27. At 26.5, this team total play is one of my strongest positions of the year.
I will gladly play over 27.5 as well, and will most likely find an escalator at plus-money that the 49ers will get to 30+ against a defense that doesn’t have the personnel to stop them.
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