This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Sunday’s action at the Miami Open will consist of third-round play in both the men’s and women’s draws. A couple of unseeded players coming off major upset wins will have the chance to upset fellow unseeded opponents in the third round, while two top-10 men are poised to advance against struggling opponents, and head-to-head history dictates a toss-up on the women’s side should actually lean firmly in one player’s direction. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting recently went live.
All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players’ previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Sorana Cirstea (+245) vs. Karolina Muchova
These are two unseeded players nobody wants to see early in a tournament right now, and one of them will punch a well-deserved ticket to the Round of 16 at a second consecutive WTA 1000 event after both just reached the quarterfinals at Indian Wells. Cirstea’s quarterfinal run included wins over Madison Keys and Caroline Garcia, and the big-hitting Romanian beat Garcia in even more convincing fashion here, with a 6-2, 6-3 triumph in the second round. Muchova has had an easier path to the third round, as she knocked off No. 32 seed Lin Zhu in her previous match. Both players have been locked in recently, so it’s surprising that Cirstea’s viewed as such a heavy underdog given her plethora of recent big wins.
Taro Daniel (+175) vs. Emil Ruusuvuori
Daniel has been on fire recently, and he’s coming off his most impressive win in this hot stretch, as he obliterated Alexander Zverev 6-0, 6-4 in the second round. Including qualifying rounds, Daniel’s 10-2 across his last three tournaments, with wins over Casper Ruud, Matteo Berrettini and Zverev. He also had Cameron Norrie on the ropes in one of the two losses before the world No. 12 escaped with a 6-7 (5), 7-5, 6-2 win. Ruusuvuori is ranked 43 spots ahead of Daniel at No. 54, but the Finn is just 9-8 this season, and Daniel has been closing that ranking gap quickly with his recent results.
Donna Vekic (+170) vs. Petra Kvitova
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Taylor Fritz (-275) vs. Denis Shapovalov
Shapovalov’s one of the most dangerous shot makers on tour and has cracked the top 10, but he has been struggling to find his game for a while, with an 8-10 record in his last 18 matches. Of those eight wins, only two have come against players ranked in the top 80. Fritz handled him routinely in Acapulco earlier this month, and the 10th-ranked American will look to repeat that 6-4, 6-4 result against the 30th-ranked Canadian.
Andrey Rublev (-400) vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
Kecmanovic has taken a step back after a breakout year in 2022, as his 8-7 overall record includes a 1-3 mark against top-75 opponents. Not only is he struggling against top competition, but Kecmanovic hasn’t even been reaching the later rounds to face such opponents. Kecmanovic pulled out a third-set tiebreak against 78th-ranked Ugo Humbert after a first-round bye here, but Rublev presents a massive step up in competition for the slumping Serb. Rublev’s been a top-10 staple for a few years, currently sitting at No. 7. Since the start of the Australian Open, Rublev’s 10-1 against players ranked outside the top 25. Kecmanovic is at No. 35 and fading fast.
Belinda Bencic (-330) vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Karolina Pliskova (+105) vs. Marketa Vondrousova
Pliskova has dominated the head-to-head between this pair of Czechs. She’s 3-0 against Vondrousova and hasn’t lost more than four games in any of the six sets they have played. Those three matches include one at this very tournament in 2019, one on Vondrousova’s preferred clay courts, and one last month. Given their head-to-head history and Pliskova’s 86-spot edge in the rankings (though Vondrousva will quickly climb back up from No. 103 now that she’s healthy), the big server should be viewed as the favorite here rather than a modest underdog.
Tommy Paul (-170) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina