2023 Masters picks, odds, field: Surprising PGA predictions from top-rated golf model that nailed 8 majors

One hole during the 2023 Masters will look different to both golfers and patrons, as the iconic 13th has been lengthened by 35 yards. That par-five 13th, commonly known as Azalea and comprising part of Amen Corner, is now 545 yards and makes Augusta National Golf Club 7,545 yards in length. That means the Masters 2023 will be the longest ever when play begins on Thursday, April 6.

Rory McIlroy leads the PGA Tour in average driving distance. Accordingly, the four-time major champion is third in the 2023 Masters odds from Caesars Sportsbook at 17-2, trailing only Jon Rahm (15-2) and Scottie Scheffler (8-1) among the top 2023 Masters contenders. Before locking in your 2023 Masters picks, be sure to see the 2023 Masters predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $8,600 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted Rahm to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. The model also included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $1,100. At last year’s Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 Masters field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 Masters predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Masters 2023: Cameron Smith, a six-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top 2023 Masters favorites, stumbles and doesn’t even crack the top 10. Smith is the defending Open champion and claimed an event in Australia late last year, but it’s been a rough go for him ever since. He finished 47th in his final event of 2022 before missing the cut in his first event of 2023, the only competitive golf he’s played in the last three months.

Despite the success that Smith experienced on the PGA Tour last season, it wasn’t his best year in terms of metrics, which could indicate he was on the right side of luck. He ranked outside the top 100 in driving distance and driving accuracy percentage, while placing just 136th on tour in the all-important strokes gained off the tee stat (-.125). With those struggles, and with only a missed cut to show for his 2023 events, the model is avoiding Smith at his current 2023 Masters betting odds.

Another surprise: Tony Finau, a 20-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Finau has been on a run over the last four months, as he’s notched top-25 finishes in his last nine tournaments. That includes a win at Houston and three other top-10s, and Finau has elevated to eighth in FedEx Cup standings and is now the No. 12 player in the world.

Finau’s metrics back up his results, as he ranks in the top 12 on tour in strokes gained tee to green (1.567), greens in regulation percentage (70.59%), and strokes gained approaching the green (1.056). He averages the third-most birdies per round (4.88), and just six golfers have a lower scoring average (69.675). With three top-10s over his first five starts at Augusta National, Finau is positioned to pay back on 2023 Masters bets, according to the model. See who else to pick here

How to make 2023 Masters picks

The model is also targeting four other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer who will make surprising runs at a green jacket. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s PGA picks here.

So, who will win the Masters 2023, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Masters odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Masters leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including last year’s Masters.

2023 Masters odds, field

See full the Masters 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Jon Rahm 15-2
Scottie Scheffler 8-1
Rory McIlroy 17-2
Cameron Smith 12-1
Jordan Spieth 15-1
Justin Thomas 16-1
Xander Schauffele 18-1
Tony Finau 20-1
Will Zalatoris 20-1
Collin Morikawa 22-1
Max Homa 22-1
Patrick Cantlay 22-1
Dustin Johnson 25-1
Cameron Young 25-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 25-1
Tom Kim 25-1
Viktor Hovland 25-1
Sungjae Im 33-1
Hideki Matsuyama 33-1
Brooks Koepka 35-1
Sam Burns 35-1
Shane Lowry 35-1
Joaquin Niemann 45-1
Tyrrell Hatton 55-1
Corey Conners 55-1
Bryson DeChambeau 55-1
Tiger Woods 55-1
Aaron Wise 60-1
Louis Oosthuizen 60-1
Abraham Ancer 60-1
Justin Rose 65-1
Patrick Reed 65-1
Tommy Fleetwood 75-1
Si-Woo Kim 80-1
Russell Henley 80-1
Sahith Theegala 80-1
Billy Horschel 85-1
Talor Gooch 90-1
Mito Pereira 90-1
Adam Scott 100-1
Gary Woodland 100-1
Bubba Watson 100-1
Tom Hoge 100-1
Brian Harman 125-1
Seamus Power 125-1
K H Lee 125-1
Keegan Bradley 125-1
Thomas Pieters 125-1
Ryan Fox 125-1
Sergio Garcia 125-1
Alex Noren 150-1
Scott Stallings 150-1
Kurt Kitayama 150-1
Jason Kokrak 150-1
Sepp Straka 150-1
Cameron Champ 150-1
Harold Varner 150-1
Kevin Na 150-1
Charl Schwartzel 175-1
Adam Meronk 175-1
Kevin Kisner 175-1
Phil Mickelson 200-1
Danny Willett 200-1
Francesco Molinari 200-1
Mackenzie Hughes 250-1
Zach Johnson 300-1
Adam Svensson 300-1
JT Poston 300-1
Fred Couples 1000-1
Bernhard Langer 1000-1
Vijay Singh 1500-1
Mike Weir 1500-1
Larry Mize 2500-1
Jose Maria Olazabal 2500-1
Sandy Lyle 5000-1

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